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The Russians have now started to panic over the rapidly increasing threat to their enclave of Kaliningrad. This panic was caused by severely ramped up reconnaissance missions against Kaliningrad. Over the past year, Nato has intensified surveillance over Kaliningrad so much that it has trumped Nato satellite and aerial reconnaissance over Crimea, which is actively used to guide Ukrainian strikes. Nato Awacs aircraft fly along Kaliningrad practically every day, while satellite reconnaissance is conducted continuously. An entire US military satellite constellation now monitors Russian military facilities here on a daily basis, including the base in Baltisk, airfields, air defense positions, and other Russian Armed Forces facilities. Given how unprecedented the change of focus from Crimea to Kaliningrad is, these are preparations for the worst-case scenario to map out Russian military positions for targeting in the event of war.

This intensified reconnaissance has led Russian military analysts to believe Nato and Ukraine are preparing for a strike against Kaliningrad already in the near future. They quoted a German Air Force Commander Holger Neumann, who claimed that in the event of a Russian attack, Germany is ready to fight as early as tonight, and that Nato’s first targets would be strikes on Kaliningrad, the Kola Peninsula, Saint Petersburg, and the Black Sea. Kaliningrad is especially difficult for the Russians to defend as the semi-exclave is surrounded by Nato states that are actively reinforcing their borders with both troops and forward bases. This would make it convenient for Nato to blockade the region from the Baltic Sea, which is also completely surrounded by Nato countries, as since the addition of Sweden and Finland to the alliance it has effectively been nicknamed the Nato Sea.

What makes it even worse for Russia, Europe has already imposed an aerial blockade above Kaliningrad, and Russia can only resupply it by flying from Saint Petersburg through international waters. Because of how geographically exposed Kaliningrad is, in the event of a conflict, every land, sea and air corridor would be completely shut by Nato forces. This would force Russia to try to seize the Suwalki Corridor, which is the only land route connecting the region with Russian-allied Belarus. However, this corridor is located between two Nato countries, Poland and Lithuania, which is why such an operation would result in the outbreak of full-scale war.

Knowing the vulnerabilities of Kaliningrad, Putin resorted to threats and announced that attempts to cut off access to Kaliningrad from Russia’s mainland will lead to an unprecedented escalation, stating that any threat to the semi-exclave would be neutralized. To prove his point, he stressed the importance of the deployment of Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missiles in Belarus. The missile carries multiple warheads, including nuclear ones, and the flight to Lithuania and Poland would be covered in only two to four minutes, giving Nato a very short time window to intercept them. With this, Russia intends to dissuade Nato from blockading Kaliningrad.

However, Russia’s reaction to ramped-up Nato reconnaissance is ungrounded, suffering from logical fallacies and skewering of the truth. Russia has been building up its forces in Kaliningrad for years. Approximately ten thousand Russian troops are stationed there, along with nuclear-capable short-range Iskander ballistic missiles, able to hit multiple European capitals at a range of five hundred kilometers, including Berlin and Warsaw. Moreover, Russia has been using Kaliningrad for years to jam aerial and maritime GPS signals and force civilian aircraft to rely on on-board navigation systems, endangering them during their flight, as has even happened to the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen’s aircraft. Given these Russian hybrid escalations, Nato has only begun more active surveillance of the Russian threats that cause this, while repeatedly and openly refraining itself from more direct action. Despite the by all measures constrained reaction of Nato, Russians are choosing to play the victim, despite triggering mass surveillance through their own actions, panicking and complaining that they will soon be attacked by Nato, even before Nato can begin lifting an actual finger.

در این قسمت از برنامه، مجتبا پورمحسن در گزارش روزش، به نطق ترامپ با هدف آماده‌سازی جامعه امریکا برای جنگ دوباره با ایران و برنامه اسرائیل برای تدارک حمله مستقل می‌‌پردازد و شایان سمیعی، شایان سمیعی، کارشناس امنیت ملی، از خطای تهران برای حمله پیش‌دستانه می‌گوید.

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ملت شریف ایران، تمام تلاش ما در کافه اندیشه این است که صدای مردم ایران، ایرانگرایی، شهریار ایران زمین رضا شاه دوم - و خاندان ایرانساز پهلوی باشیم.
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برای دیدن ویدیوها و همچنین دانلود کتاب هایی که به عنوان منبع معرفی می شوند به کانال تلگرام قاصدک تی وی مراجعه کنید:
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ملت شریف ایران،
تمام تلاش ما در کافه اندیشه این است که صدای مردم ایران، ایرانگرایی، شهریار ایران‌زمین – رضا شاه دوم – و خاندان ایران‌ساز پهلوی باشیم.
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✨ یکی از شورانگیزترین غزل‌های مولانا؛ روایتی از بی‌خودی، مستی عشق و رهایی از عقل حسابگر.

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⏱️ فصل‌بندی

00:00 خوانش اول
06:35 خوانش دوم

در حال حاضر نسخه کامل نغمه‌های منتشرشده را می‌توانید از طریق صفحات «دیوان خیال» بشنوید:

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✦ متن کامل شعر

من، بی‌خود و تو، بی‌خود؛ ما را که برد خانه؟
من، چند، تو را گفتم: «کم خور دو سه پیمانه!»

در شهر، یکی کس را هشیار نمی‌بینم
هر یک بتر از دیگر، شوریده و دیوانه

جانا! به خرابات آ تا لذت جان بینی
جان را چه خوشی باشد، بی‌صحبت جانانه؟

هر گوشه، یکی مستی، دستی ز بر دستی
وان ساقی هر هستی، با ساغر شاهانه

تو، وقف خراباتی، دخلت، می و خرجت می
زین وقف به هشیاران، مسپار یکی دانه

ای لولی بربط‌زن! تو، مست‌تری یا من؟
ای پیش چو تو مستی، افسون من، افسانه

از خانه برون رفتم، مستیم به پیش آمد
در هر نظرش مضمر، صد گلشن و کاشانه

چون کشتی بی‌لنگر، کژ می‌شد و مژ می‌شد
وز حسرت او مرده، صد عاقل و فرزانه

گفتم: «ز کجایی تو؟» تسخر زد و گفت: «ای جان!
نیمیم ز ترکستان، نیمیم ز فرغانه

نیمیم ز آب و گل، نیمیم ز جان و دل
نیمیم لب دریا، نیمی همه دردانه»

گفتم که: «رفیقی کن با من که منم خویشت»
گفتا که: «بنشناسم، من، خویش ز بیگانه»

من، بی‌دل و دستارم، در خانه خمارم
یک سینه سخن دارم، هین شرح دهم یا نه؟

در حلقه لنگانی، می‌بایدت لنگیدن
این پند ننوشیدی، از خواجه علیانه؟

سرمست چنان خوبی، کی کم بود از چوبی؟
برخاست فغان آخر، از استن حنانه

شمس‌الحق تبریزی! از خلق چه پرهیزی؟
اکنون که درافکندی، صد فتنه فتانه

📖 مولانا | دیوان شمس
غزل شماره ۲۳۰۹

#مولانا #دیوان_شمس #غزل_۲۳۰۹ #شعر_فارسی #ادبیات_فارسی #عرفان #موسیقی_سنتی #موسیقی_ایرانی #شعر_عرفانی #PersianPoetry #Rumi #MysticPoetry #PersianMusic #IranianMusic

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مرگ مانوک خدابخشیان هنوز هم برای خیلی‌ها پر از سؤال و ابهامه.تحلیل‌گری که سال‌ها بی‌پرده حرف زد و پیش‌بینی‌هایی داشت که بعد از رفتنش یکی‌یکی به واقعیت نزدیک شدن.اما خودش چطور از دنیا رفت؟سکته‌ای ناگهانی… یا ماجرایی که هیچ‌وقت کامل گفته نشد؟در این ویدیو، فقط بر اساس روایت‌های موجود و گفته‌های نزدیکانش، به سراغ جزئیاتی می‌ریم که کمتر شنیده شده.قضاوت با شماست…🔔 تا آخر ویدیو همراه باشید💬 نظرتون رو کامنت کنید👍 لایک و سابسکرایب فراموش نشه#مانوک_خدابخشیان #مرگ_مشکوک#تحلیلگر #راز_مرگ#سوژه_داغ#رازهای_پنهان #پهلوی #جاویدشاه #تحلیل_سیاسی #تاریخ_معاصر_ایران#تاریخ_ایران #سقوط_جمهوری_اسلامی#افشاگری #پشت_پرده #پیشگویی #پیشبینی مانوک خدابخشیانمرگ مانوک خدابخشیانمرگ مشکوکراز مرگپرونده مشکوکتحلیل سیاسیابهام در مرگحقیقت پنهاناخبار جنجالیویدیوی تحلیلیسرای تاریختاریخ معاصرتاریخ ایرانپهلوی

ملت شریف ایران، تمام تلاش ما در کافه اندیشه این است که صدای مردم ایران، ایرانگرایی، شهریار ایران زمین رضا شاه دوم - و خاندان ایرانساز پهلوی باشیم.
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این ویدیو شامل فیلم و عکس های آرشیوی است که ممکن است به طور مستقیم به رویدادهای مورد بحث مرتبط نباشد. این محتوا برای ارائه زمینه بیشتر و کمک به درک بهتر موضوع استفاده شده است.
This video features archival content that may not be directly linked to the events under discussion. It is included to provide additional context and facilitate a better understanding of the subject.

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Today, there are important updates from the Liman direction.  

Here, the gap between Russian official maps and battlefield reality around Liman has become extraordinary, as Russian command maps place their furthest claimed positions roughly forty kilometers west of the actual frontline and attribute another one-thousand-three-hundred-and-sixty square kilometers to Russian control. Such claims are based on an apparently AI-generated video purporting to show a Russian soldier in Chervonyi Oskil, after which Russian sources claimed the settlement had been captured, causing reaction from Russian military analysts, who are increasingly criticizing this trend of exaggerated reporting.

That fictional picture has become increasingly difficult to preserve as Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi advances. To counter this in the information space, Russia’s Western Grouping of Forces released footage supposedly demonstrating continued Russian presence in Nove, Ridkodub, and other recently liberated settlements by the Ukrainians. But analysts quickly identified indications that the footage was archival, with the videos filmed when Russian forces originally captured these locations in two-thousand-twenty-five, before Ukraine’s counterattack, showing vegetation inconsistent with current conditions. Another clip from Ridkodub showed a Russian soldier moving through the settlement while Ukrainian FPV drones pursued him, but visual comparisons placed the recording around August last year.  

Russian military commentators have consequently begun attacking their own command’s response with the argument that the Ukrainian counterattack itself is less damaging than pretending it does not exist. Instead of acknowledging setbacks, determining why defenses failed and correcting them, Russian commanders publish old footage and maintain an increasingly fictional frontline, which creates consequences extending far beyond symbolic claims.

Russian soldiers witnessing Ukrainian advances while official channels insist nothing significant has happened have less reason to trust their commanders. Russian analysts have repeatedly warned that distorted reporting also damages battlefield decision-making: commanders can allocate reserves, artillery and drone coverage according to positions that exist on maps but not on the ground. The resulting disconnect can leave troops isolated and encourage demoralized soldiers to seek information elsewhere.

The real battlefield situation around Liman demonstrates why this matters, as Ukraine officially announced that its Third Army Corps has liberated settlement after settlement, releasing footage weeks after the events for operational security. The earlier penetration around Nove was particularly revealing, as the Ukrainian forces converted an old BTR into an unmanned explosive vehicle and managed to drive the relatively slow machine toward Russian defenses. Its ability to approach the target suggested Russian drone observation and fire control were not present there, because according to Russian maps, there was no threat to Ridkodub.  

Now Ukrainian pressure is extending toward the Zherebets River. Russian sources themselves have acknowledged Ukrainian activity around crossings and positions near Terny, while Ukrainian strikes against crossing points and rear logistics are complicating Russian resupply. Every restricted crossing creates another bottleneck where vehicles, ammunition and reinforcements become vulnerable to drones.

Yet Russian information management continues trying to preserve a battlefield picture increasingly contradicted even by Russian analysts. After losing substantial territory and suffering significant casualties, commanders are still releasing archival or AI-generated footage and defending claims built upon earlier exaggerated advances.

Overall, Russia may claim that the Lyman front has stabilized, but fighting remains active around the Zherebets approaches, with Ukrainian infiltrators crossing the river for quick raids. Ukraine is simultaneously applying ground pressure, attacking the crossings methodically and disrupting Russian rear logistics. The widening distance between Russia’s declared frontline and the battlefield itself is therefore becoming more than an information problem: it risks actively undermining Russia’s ability to organize the defense it now urgently needs to stop Ukraine’s counteroffensive and to prevent the Russian defense line behind the river from collapsing completely.

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